Seasoned Greetings: Unwrap the Value & Versatility of Beef for the Holidays

• Even though inflation has slowed, consumers are still worried about prices and balancing holiday expenditures with other expenses.     
• Given still elevated food prices, consumers are spending cautiously and trading down on brands and retailers, prioritizing value over brand loyalty.    
• Consumers are finding ways to save time and money, focusing on convenience, versatility, and value. Beef’s versatility makes it a preferred choice for holiday meals, fitting into various dishes and mealtimes.    
• Given the current economic landscape, consumers may lean toward budget-friendly beef cuts and recipes, maintaining the taste and quality of their meals without overspending.  

Introduction

With inflation dropping below 3% since June of 2024 and the prime lending rate seeing a modest cut, consumers should be feeling some relief, but the price of consumer goods and services remain elevated; as we look to the new administration following the election, and large-scale global conflict. Consumers remain cautious as noted by the University of Michigan’s Sentiment Index of 70.5 for the month of October.¹ This year, the challenge lies in celebrating the holidays while keeping a close eye on budgets. Despite this, families will celebrate the end-of-year holidays, from Thanksgiving to New Year’s, by spending quality time with loved ones. Beef, known for its great taste and versatility, remains a centerpiece of these celebrations, symbolizing tradition and indulgence.

In light of the upcoming holidays, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), a contractor to the Beef Checkoff, presents a comprehensive analysis of holiday-related data based on a recent consumer survey and other reputable resources. This analysis offers valuable insights into holiday consumer preferences and behaviors and beef’s resilience amidst economic challenges. 

Balancing Budgets and Holiday Cheer

Many are approaching the 2024 holiday season with a degree of optimism. According to Circana, consumer sentiment and intentions have significantly improved compared to the last two years, and a notable 64% of consumers look forward to the holidays, viewing them as a much-needed break.² Gathering with loved ones and sharing delicious beef meals remain central to these celebrations.³ This year, there’s a focus on joyful experiences and creating memories while being mindful of budgets.

However, the expenses associated with end-of-year holidays can quickly add up, including costs for gifts, holiday meals, seasonal items, and travel. Nevertheless, holiday spending is projected to increase this year, with shifts in how consumers allocate their budgets.⁴ According to JLL’s 2024 Holiday Shopping Survey, budgets have risen by 31.7%, with the average consumer planning to spend $1,261 on gifts, holiday food and décor, and experiences, up from $958 last year.⁴ While gifts are still important, there’s a notable shift toward spending more on holiday food and décor (up 61%) and holiday experiences and entertainment (up 56.4%), highlighting the essence of the holiday season – quality time and delicious food.⁴  

Holiday spending is nuanced and influenced by individual financial situations and the broader economic landscape. Some consumers are ready to splurge and feel more confident about their finances than last year.² Conversely, many are spending cautiously and cutting back when necessary. According to Circana and Gallup, most plan to spend the same as last year, but a higher percentage will spend more, likely due to improved financial situation and sentiment.^2,5 

While spending is expected to rise, many consumers are likely to rely on credit cards to cover their holiday expenses. NerdWallet reports that 74% of shoppers plan to use credit cards again for this year’s holiday shopping.⁶ However, 28% of those who used credit cards for holiday expenses last year still have unpaid balances.⁶ Moreover, the last Quarterly report on Household Debt and Credit from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, total household debt increased by $109 billion to reach $17.80 trillion, and credit card balances rose by $27 billion to reach $1.14 trillion.⁷ This significant rise in debt suggests consumers are turning to credit to help manage their finances, potentially leading to higher debt levels during the holiday season. 

Prices remain high, despite inflation stabilizing at 2.4% in September 2024, the lowest rate since February 2021.⁸ The NCBA Holiday Consumer Survey shows that inflation and rising costs are significant concerns for many, with over half believing these factors will impact their holiday spending.³ About 60% of consumers expect to spend more on holiday food, with nearly half of them anticipating they’ll get the same amount or less for their money.³ Shoppers are not only worried about prices but also about how to balance holiday expenses with other financial responsibilities.³ Therefore, price and value will be crucial considerations throughout the end of the year. 

1. University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment Index, October 2024. 
2. Circana, Holiday Purchase Intentions Key Findings Report, October 2024.
3. Holiday Consumer Survey, analyzed and summarized by NCBA, on behalf of the Beef Checkoff, September 2024.
4. JLL, Holiday Shopping Report 2024, September 2024.
5. Gallup, U.S. Consumers Plan Generous Holiday Spending. Published online on October 25, 2024. https://news.gallup.com/poll/652664/consumers-plan-generous-holiday-spending.aspx 
6. NerdWallet, 2024 Holiday Spending Report. Published online on October 8, 2024. https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/shopping/holiday-tips-news/2024-holiday-spending-report#key-findings
7. Federal Reserve Bank of NY, Household Debt and Credit Report (Q2 2024), https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc 
8. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted, September 2024 Release. 
9. Consumer Beef Tracker, Directions Group, analyzed and summarized by NCBA, on behalf of the Beef Checkoff.